The Clarion team joined Lumina Intelligence’s Q2 Food Strategy Forum, bringing together some of the sharpest insight on the UK eating out market right now – and, crucially, what’s coming next.
Set against a challenging backdrop, the overarching message was clear: while growth continues, it’s modest and largely inflation-led. The UK eating out market is forecast to reach £102.8bn by 2026, but with consumer confidence under pressure, operators need to work harder than ever to capture spend.
Growth is increasingly being driven by agility. Coffee, bakery, food-to-go and travel-led formats are leading the way, reflecting demand for convenience, flexibility and new occasions, while more traditional restaurant formats are under pressure.
Consumers themselves are also shifting. Spend is becoming more polarised towards higher-income groups, while others are cutting back – reinforcing that value-for-money is non-negotiable. But ‘value’ now goes beyond price, with quality, health and ingredient provenance all playing a bigger role in decision-making.
Coffee: evolving from routine to experience
One of the standout sessions focused on the coffee market – and the transformation happening within it.
Despite continued innovation, coffee shops are facing pressure, with participation declining slightly as rising prices push some consumers out of the category.
However, those still in the market are trading up – seeking more premium, personalised and experience-led options.
Operators are responding in several ways. Formats are shifting, with growth in compact stores, drive-thrus and travel locations designed to capture convenience-led missions. At the same time, menus are evolving to create more excitement, from visually distinctive iced drinks to globally inspired flavours like matcha and ube.
What’s particularly interesting is how coffee is increasingly positioned as more than just a drink. It’s becoming part of a broader lifestyle experience, blending into wellness, socialising and even entertainment-led spaces. From functional beverages to ‘third space’ environments, coffee brands are expanding their role in consumers’ daily routines.
At the same time, there’s a growing tension between value and premiumisation. Brands like Greggs are winning on affordability, while others are leaning into provenance, craft and storytelling to justify higher spend – highlighting just how polarised the market has become.
Pubs: redefining their role in a changing market
The forum also shone a light on the pub and bar sector, where operators are navigating both structural challenges and shifting consumer habits.
Growth remains subdued, with the sector expected to grow around +2% while continuing to see a gradual decline in outlet numbers.
But within that, there are clear opportunities for those willing to adapt.
Occasions are evolving. There’s a growing split between social, group-led visits and solo occasions, particularly post-work ‘wind down’ moments.
This is creating new opportunities for pubs to diversify their offer and cater to a wider range of needs throughout the week.
Drinks strategies are also shifting. Cocktails and smaller serves are becoming more prominent, particularly among younger consumers, while alcohol-free and low-alcohol options are gaining traction as health considerations rise.
Importantly, taste and quality remain key – reinforcing the need for pubs to deliver credible, well-crafted alternatives rather than treating low/no as an afterthought.
Beyond the menu, pubs are leaning further into experience and community. From creative events and mid-week activations to initiatives focused on social connection, operators are finding new ways to drive footfall and remain relevant in a competitive landscape.
Small plates, big opportunity
A major focus of the forum – and the afternoon food tour – was the continued rise of snacks, small plates and sharing formats.
This reflects a broader shift in how people are eating. Dayparts are becoming more fluid, with growth shifting towards brunch, snacking and flexible dining occasions. Smaller, more frequent eating moments are on the rise, driven by changing lifestyles, on-the-go habits and even the impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
At the same time, snacks are being elevated. They’re no longer just functional – they’re a way to experiment, discover and socialise. From indulgent drinks to premium bakery and globally inspired dishes, operators are turning everyday formats into something worth seeking out.
Taking it to the streets: the Lumina food tour
To bring these trends to life, we joined Lumina’s Q2 Food Concept Tour across Shoreditch, exploring a range of operators putting these ideas into practice.
The theme – sharing, snacks and small plates – came through strongly at every stop, with each venue showcasing a distinct take on format, flavour and experience:
- Kricket – bold, modern Indian small plates designed for sharing, with a clear focus on flavour and social dining
- BAO – compact menu, high-impact dishes and a strong identity that continues to resonate with younger, urban audiences
- Sushi Pops – a reimagined grab-and-go sushi concept, built around convenience, portability and visual appeal
- Sicilian Pride – premium bakery rooted in heritage, bringing provenance and craft into a fast-casual format
- Santa Nata – elevated Portuguese pastries, using storytelling and authenticity to drive perceived value
- Vagabond – blurring the lines between food, drink and experience, with interactive wine-led positioning
What this means for brands
For us, the key takeaway is that success in foodservice now sits at the intersection of three things: value, experience and relevance.
Brands that will win are those that can clearly articulate why they’re worth it – not just in price terms, but through quality, creativity and the overall experience they deliver. Whether that’s through format innovation, tapping into new occasions, or creating culturally relevant moments, standing still is no longer an option.
And, judging by both the insight sessions and the food tour, the brands that are getting it right are the ones embracing that change head-on.
Source: Lumina Intelligence Q2 Food Strategy Forum, Everyman Cinema, 18 June 2026.
